2 Billion People Could Get Swine Flu According to WHO

The World Health Organization said on Thursday, up to 2 million people could be infected with swine flu if a pandemic outbreak lasts two years. Keiji Fukuda, Head of the WHO(World Health Organization) Flu said that the history of flu pandemics is one third of the world’s population could become infected with these outbreaks. Independent experts agree that the estimate was possible.

Mexico, the country with the strongest impact so far, opened high schools and universities, for the first time in two weeks. A senior official of the Mexican Government suggested that the epidemic is declining. All students have been inspected for symptoms of swine flu, and some were dismissed from school.

Fukuda stated, “If we look at the past pandemics, a reasonable estimate would be maybe a third of the world infected with this virus.” With the current total world population of more than 6 billion, that means a possible total of 2 billion infected. However, he added that the world has changed from previous generations, pandemics, and experts are not able to accurately predict. The past is not a prediction of the future.

Since, this virus is new to the population; the whole world is immunologically compromised. The WHO states that 2 million people can be catch the flu. Yet, half the people show no symptoms or the symptoms are mild.

Fukuda also said that it is impossible to say whether the current flu strain swine is difficult or easy, but even a slight flu “from the global perspective, there are many people; they may develop pneumonia, which can lead to death.” A mild impact in the rich countries can be very different in their impact on developing countries, said Fukuda. People react differently to the flu, the global health and other factors, including malnutrition, war, HIV and other factors.

So far, 24 countries have reported cases of the swine flu virus.  Mexico has two new deaths, a total of 44, while 1160 people were ill, 90 on Wednesday.

Swine flu seems to be a long incubation period – five to seven days before the symptoms, said Dr. Marc-Alain Widdowson, medical epidemiologist of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now monitoring influenza in Mexico City.

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